Morgan, M. Granger and Max Henrion. Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press (1990,1998).
Written by the original authors of Analytica, this text provides extensive background on how to represent and analyze uncertainty in quantitative models. It includes chapters on:
- Building good policy models
- Categorizing types and sources of uncertainty
- How people make judgments under uncertainty
- Encoding expert judgment in the form of probability distributions
- Choosing a computational method for propagating uncertainty in a model
- Analyzing uncertainty in very large models Displaying and communicating uncertainty
- Displaying and communicating uncertainty
- How to tell if representing uncertainty could make a significant difference to your conclusions, or “the value of knowing how little you know”
We recommend the second edition, published in 1998, which contains a full chapter on Analytica (Chapter 10). If you have the first edition (1990), we recommend that you ignore Chapter 10, which describes the precursor of Analytica and is quite out of date!
Clemen, Robert T. Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis. Duxbury Press (1991).
Howard, R., and J. Matheson. Influence Diagrams. In Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, eds. R. Howard and J. Matheson. pp. 721-762. Menlo Park, CA: Strategic Decisions Group (1981).
Keeney, R. Value–Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decision Making, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press (1992).
Knuth, D.E. Seminumerical Algorithms, 2nd ed., vol. 2 of The Art of Computer Programming, Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley (1981).
L’Ecuyer, P. Communications of the ACM, 31, 742-774 (1988).
Park, S.K., and K.W. Miller. Communications of the ACM, 31, 1192-1201 (1988).
Pearl, J. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems, San Mateo, CA: Morgan Kaufmann (1988).
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