About Analytica

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Tutorial Intro

This section introduces Analytica and its uses, explains what is included in this tutorial, and tells you how to use this manual.

Welcome to Analytica

You are about to discover a powerful tool for real-world modeling and analysis. Analytica embod- ies the idea of using a white board for problem solving. Using a visual, point-and-click approach, you draw nodes and arrows to depict the relationships between model components. This approach allows you to describe the essential qualitative nature of the problem without getting lost in the details. As the model develops and your understanding of the problem becomes clear, you can define the exact quantitative details of the model. A key feature of Analytica is its ability to create hierarchies of models. By grouping related compo- nents of a problem into separate submodels, you can impose a multi-level organization to your model. This helps you to manage complex relationships and allows other users to more easily grasp important concepts.
Tutorial fig1.png
Another key feature of Analytica is the use of Intelligent Arrays™. These enable you to add or remove dimensions such as time periods, geographic regions, alternative decisions, etc., with minimal changes to the model structure. Unlike spreadsheets, which require you to repeat formu- las with each new dimension, Analytica separates the dimensions from the relationships so that models remain simple. As the dimensions change, Analytica automatically updates, reports, and graphs the results. Each node, or object, in an Analytica model has a window that displays the node’s inputs and out- puts, and allows you to enter definitions, descriptions, units of measure, and other documentary information. This self-documenting capability, combined with hierarchical models and Intelligent Arrays, makes it easier to understand and communicate how models work. Analytica features fully integrated risk and sensitivity analysis for analyzing models with uncertain inputs; powerful facilities for time-dependent, dynamic simulations; powerful graphing capabilities; and over 200 financial, statistical, and scientific functions for calculating just about any type of mathematical expression.

Who can use Analytica

Analytica is for the modeler and problem solver — from the financial analyst modeling business opportunities to the engineer designing new products to the scientist investigating the behavior of physical phenomena. It is particularly suited to users in the fields where you have to reason with uncertainties, or arrays of data, or both, i.e., management consulting, health and environmental sciences, aerospace, oil and gas, construction, manufacturing, financial services, and investing.

Tutorial overview

This tutorial is a hands-on introduction to using Analytica. Step-by-step instructions show you how to explore and analyze an existing Analytica model and how to create a new Analytica model. Because later tutorial sections build on the material in earlier chapters, you should work through the chapters in order. We recommend that everyone new to Analytica complete Chapters 1 through 5, which takes two to three hours. If you want to work more quickly, skip the text and only follow the instructions in the boxed steps. Then, if you are unsure about any terms or concepts, look them up in the Glos- sary or review the text. And before you start your own modeling, you should review Chapter 9, which describes the sample models included with Analytica. This way, you can benefit from examples similar to what you might be modeling. This tutorial is designed to introduce you to some of Analytica’s basic features. When you are familiar with the basics, refer to the Analytica User Guide for more detailed information on Analyt- ica’s features.

  • Chapter 1: Using the Rent vs. Buy Model

This chapter shows how to open and run an Analytica model. Using a simple interface to an example model that analyzes the total costs of buying or renting a house, you will calculate results and change input values to see the effects on the results. You will display uncertain results in a variety of ways.

  • Chapter 2: Exploring the Rent vs. Buy Model

This chapter shows you how to browse a model’s structure and assumptions by examining its influence diagrams, variables, and definitions.

  • Chapter 3: Analyzing the Rent vs. Buy Analysis Model

This chapter shows you how to perform importance analysis and sensitivity analysis to see which uncertain variables most heavily influence the outcome.

  • Chapter 4: Creating Models

This chapter shows you how to create a new Analytica model. In the process of building a model that analyzes the costs of owning and operating an automobile, you will create variables, define relationships between variables, add documentary text, and compute results. In addition, you will create modules and add dependencies between modules.

  • Chapter 5: Working with Arrays (Tables)

This chapter shows you how to add index variables and edit tables (these will be defined later) to a model, and demonstrates how tables work in Analytica, including an introduction to table functions.

  • Chapter 6: Creating the Party Problem Model

This chapter walks you through a familiar problem: where to have your next party. This model introduces probability tables and conditional deterministic tables. You should complete this chapter if your models will use discrete or conditional uncertainties.

  • Chapter 7: Creating the Foxes and Hares Model

In this chapter you create a dynamic model of population sizes that depend on each other and that change with time. You should complete this chapter if your models will use dynamic simulation or variables that change over time.

  • Chapter 8: Sharing Models with Others

In this chapter, you’ll learn how to make the models you create available for use by others, either via Analytica Player or on the web.

  • Chapter 9: Example Models and Libraries

This chapter briefly describes all the example models provided with Analytica. You should investigate these as you begin to build your own models.

Installing Analytica

Before you start this tutorial, follow these steps to install the Analytica application and associated model files on your computer.

  1. Go to the Lumina web site: [1].
  2. Click the Downloads option under the Support heading.
  3. Read the instructions on the web page that comes up.
  4. Click the AnaSetup.exe link next to the Analytica (32-bit) heading.
  5. A file download dialog box appears. Click Run to download the installation program and start running it to install Analytica. Or you can click Save to download the installation program to run later.
  6. If you clicked Run, the Windows Installer should automatically start up and begin installing Analytica.
  7. Follow the instructions:
    1. Confirm that you accept the terms of the End-User License Agreement (EULA).
    2. Express vs. Custom install: This option appears when upgrading, when the installer already has all information it needs to proceed. Select Express to complete the installa- tion. Select Custom to review or change license information, install location, or other installation options.
    3. Option to automatically uninstall earlier releases of Analytica for you when upgrading.
    4. License information. Options:
      • Previously activated individual license: Applicable if you are re-installing and already have a valid Analytica license file located in the previous install directory.
      • New individual license: (most common selection) Select when you have an activation key, either from an Analytica purchase or from 30-day free Trial evaluation. If you are a system administrator installing Analytica for a user account other than the one you are running the installer from, you should select this option but leave the activation key field blank -- the activation key must be entered from the account that Analytica will be used from. When the activation key is left blank, you will have another opportunity to enter it when Analytica is first launched.
      • Centrally managed license (RLM License Server): Used when your organization provides floating licenses or named-user licenses, hosted from an RLM License Server. With this type of license, your organization’s system administrators manage the licenses, and you don’t need an activation key.
      • Free Player: The free player license is always available, allows you to view, change inputs, and evaluate existing models, but not to change or save the model itself.
    5. End-User Identification. All fields here are optional. Your name and email is used to con- figure an account for you on the Analytica Wiki, which provides a tremendous asset when learn and using Analytica, and thus is highly recommended. If you already have an Analytica Wiki account, you can enter your login and password here so that Analytica can automatically log you in when a hyperlink within Analytica links to the Wiki, conveniently avoiding the login page.
    6. Install location. The default installation location for Analytica is C:\Program Files\Lumina\Analytica 4.4. However, if your account is not an administrator account, you may not have the access permission rights to write to that directory, in which case you should change the Destination Folder to C:\Users\«userName»\AppData\Lumina\Analytica 4.4.

If you’ve installed any edition of Analytica, including Player, Trial, and then later obtain a license for a different edition, you do not need to re-run the installer. You can enter the new license or activation key by selecting Update License... on the Analytica Help menu.

Conventions used in this tutorial

The conventions used in this tutorial are as follows:

  • Boxed, numbered instructions along the left side of the page give you the steps to take.

Explanatory text often follows a step, accompanied by pictures of the Analytica screens similar to the ones you see on your computer. For example:
Tutorial fig2.png

  • Variable and model titles are displayed in italic type.
  • The following keys on the keyboard are shown in italic type: Enter, Return, Tab, Delete, Shift, Alt, F1.
  • Special Analytica terms are displayed in bold italic type; they are defined when they are first introduced.

For your reference, a glossary at the end of the tutorial defines the terms used in this tutorial. Tips alert you to useful or important information. . They look like this:

Tip These alert you to useful or important information.

Assumed background

This tutorial assumes that you already have the basic skills needed to run Windows programs, including the following:

Term Meaning
click Press and release the mouse button one time.
double-click Quickly press and release the mouse button two times.
drag Press and hold down the mouse button while moving the cursor to a new location on the screen, then release the mouse button.
press Press and hold down the mouse button.
select Click an interface object, such as a menu command or a cell in a table; selected objects usually appear highlighted.

You also need to know how to use pull-down and popup menus, scroll bars, and windows. If you are not familiar with these basic operations, look at the reference material that came with your computer. This tutorial also assumes that you have basic skills of financial or quantitative modeling — for example, from previously using a spreadsheet program. It assumes that you are acquainted with elementary statistics and are comfortable with the con- cepts of mean, median, and standard deviation. It also assumes that you have some understanding of probability distributions, such as the normal and uniform, and are familiar with the concepts of probability density function and cumulative distribution function. These terms are reviewed briefly in the Glossary at the end of the tutorial.

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