Plane Catching Decision with Expected Value of Including Uncertainty

Example model

Description: A simple decision analysis model of a familiar decision: What time I should leave my home to catch an early morning plane departure? I am uncertain about the time to drive to the airport, walk from parking to gate (including security), and time needed at the departure gate. It also illustrates the Expected Value of Including Uncertainty (EVIU) -- the value of considering uncertainty explicitly in your decision making compared to ignoring it and assuming that all uncertain quantities are fixed at the median estimate.

Details at Catching a plane example and EVIU. Includes downloadable model, slides, and video.

Keywords: Decision theory, decision analysis, uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulation, value of information, EVPI, EVIU.

Author: Max Henrion