Catching a plane example and EVIU

Revision as of 18:32, 28 October 2020 by Max (talk | contribs)

It's a familiar decision -- what time should you leave home to catch an early morning flight? You'd prefer to enjoy your morning snooze for as long as possible. But you don't want to miss your plane!

Description: This simple decision-analysis model shows how to figure out the best time to leave -- to balance the risks of wasting time waiting at the airport gate when you could have been snoozing against the risk of missing the plane. It shows how to model the uncertainty about how long you'll need to go from home to the gate. It also illustrates an innovative metric, the Expected Value of Including Uncertainty (EVIU) -- the value you get from explicitly considering the uncertainty versus simple ignoring it and assuming that all uncertainty quantities are fixed at their median value.

The influence diagram: User interface for Plane Catching Decision.png

Download the model: media:Plane catching with UI 2020.ANA

It illustrates the EVIU (expected value of including uncertainty) i.e. the difference in expected value if I make a decision to minimize expected loss instead of decision to minimize time ignoring uncertainty (assuming each distribution is fixed at its mid value). For more details see

Keywords: Decision theory, decision analysis, uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulation, value of information, VOI, EVPI, EVIU.

Author: Max Henrion, PhD.

For more:'

  • See this engaging video of Max Henrion in conversation with Alex at Risk Awareness Week in October 2020. Max introduces the problem, builds the model in Analytica, and explains the concept of the EVIU. Max also cites Archibishop Ussher of Ireland who calculated the exact day and time of the Creation of the World, and Socrates, who famously said "If I am thought wise, it is only because I know that I know nothing” (Phaedrus, sec 235) and annoyed his fellow Athenians so much that they condemned him to death.
  • Here are Max's slides:
  • For more details on the EVIU: chapter 12 "The Value of Knowing How Little You Know" of Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, M. Granger Morgan and Max Henrion, Cambridge University Press: New York, 1990. ISBN 0-521-42744-4.
  • "The Value of Knowing How Little You Know", Max Henrion, PhD Dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University, 1982.
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