{ From user Lonnie, Model R_d_portfolio_model at Thu, Apr 17, 2008 11:05 AM~~
}
Softwareversion 4.1.0
{ System Variables with non-default values: }
Samplesize := 1010
Typechecking := 1
Checking := 1
Saveoptions := 2
Savevalues := 0
Model R_d_portfolio_model
Title: Biotech R&D portfolio
Description: The multi project R&D evaluation models a typical R&D dec~~
ision problem a biogenetic company faces. For example, a company cou~~
ld face two methods of finding desired genes and delivering them- eit~~
her using tissues or using virus. Each method involves different ri~~
sks in terms of producing a technically successful product. Furthermo~~
re, each method also results in a product which faces different marke~~
t challenges. This model allows users to specify each of the risks as~~
well as some relevant financial data in order to calculate the expec~~
ted value from a R&D decision. This model also demonstrates how all t~~
he input to the model can be handled using one node called Project da~~
ta input.
Author: Lee
Date: Wed, May 10, 1995 1:40 PM
Saveauthor: Lonnie
Savedate: Thu, Apr 17, 2008 11:05 AM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Diagstate: 1,29,13,575,495,1
Fontstyle: Arial, 15
Fileinfo: 0,Model R_d_portfolio_model,2,2,0,0,C:\Users\Lonnie\Document~~
s\Webinar\User group\Biotech R&D Portfolio Tornado.ana
Decision Commercialize
Title: Commercialize
Description: If an R&D project is technically successful, then the pro~~
ject will be commercialized. The user does not directly enter this d~~
ecision. It is based on the outcome of the R&D results module which d~~
etermines whether a R&D project is technically successful based on pr~~
obabilities that were specified in the Project data input node.
Definition: Technical_success
Nodelocation: 264,216
Nodesize: 48,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 11,-1,-8739
Objective R_d__value
Title: R&D ~
value
Units: $
Description: If the project was actually funded, then R&D value is the~~
NPV (if commercialized) minus the NPV of R&D cost. Otherwise, it is ~~
assigned 0.
Definition: If R_d_funding then Npv_if_commercialize - Npv_r_d_cost el~~
se 0
Nodelocation: 432,216
Nodesize: 44,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 2,695,76,251,138,0,MEAN
Aliases: Alias Al5
Nodecolor: -5300,22800,-32616
Reformval: [R_d,Statslabels]
Module Market_suc
Title: Market success
Description: This module includes sub modules that determine expected ~~
profit from each product. It further calculates various net present v~~
alue of profits (excluding fixed costs, variable costs, tax, and R&D ~~
costs).
Author: Max Henrion
Date: Mon, Apr 3, 1995 10:36 PM
Saveauthor: Henrion
Savedate: Sat, May 20, 1995 8:46 PM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 432,128
Nodesize: 48,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Diagstate: 1,45,54,466,215,1
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Decision Price
Title: Price
Units: $/unit
Description: This is the price per unit of the product. The price for ~~
each unit is entered in the Project data input node.
Definition: Project_data_input[Data='Price per unit of product']
Nodelocation: 88,56
Nodesize: 40,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 11,-1,-8739
Alias Al5
Title: Profit
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 368,136
Nodesize: 44,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: -5300,22800,-32616
Original: R_d__value
Module Market_forecast
Title: Market forecast
Description: This submodule calculates various values related to the m~~
arket such as market size, market growth, market share, and units exp~~
ected to be sold each year. The calculation is based on the assumpti~~
ons that the user inputs via the Project data input node. Market sha~~
re and market growth are uncertainty nodes. The user specifies distri~~
butions. Therfore,a user can obtain distributions of market size and ~~
units.
Author: mike
Date: Wed, Aug 23, 1995 11:46 AM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 224,56
Nodesize: 44,20
Diagstate: 1,136,146,484,349,17
Chance Units_sold
Title: Units~
sold
Units: units
Description: The total units of the product sold each year. It is calc~~
ulated by multiplying the total market by the market share.
Definition: Total_market * Market_share
Nodelocation: 384,160
Nodesize: 40,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,152,162,416,303,1,PDFP
Nodecolor: 30394,31570,-1
Reformval: [R_d,Statslabels]
Chance Total_market
Title: Market~
size
Units: units
Description: The total number of units sold of all products of this ty~~
pe each year. This is calculated by applying each year's market growt~~
h rate to the previous year's market size.
Definition: Market_now*((1+Market_growth)^(year - current_year))
Nodelocation: 384,40
Nodesize: 40,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,1,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30394,31570,-1
Reformval: [Year,R_d]
Chance Market_growth
Title: Market~
growth
Units: /year
Description: This is the average growth in market size each year as a~~
fraction of the previous year. It is modeled as a lognormal distri~~
bution with mode and geometric standard deviation specified by the us~~
er using the Project data input node.
Definition: Project_data_input[Data='Annual Market Growth']
Nodelocation: 256,96
Nodesize: 40,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,1,PDFP
Nodecolor: 30394,31570,-1
Chance Market_share
Title: Market~
share
Units: %
Description: The units sold of this product as a percent of the total ~~
market. The total market is modeled like a function that grows cubi~~
c from the end of R&D time to the end of Ramp time, stays at 1 for th~~
e duration of Plateau time, and declines cubic from end of Plateau ti~~
me to Decline time. This total market share curve is multiplied by t~~
he maximum market share to obtain the market share.
Definition: ((S_curve((R_d_time+Current_year),Ramp_time,Year)-S_curve(~~
(((R_d_time+Current_year)+Ramp_time)+Plateau_time),Decline_time,Year)~~
)*Max_Share)
Nodelocation: 256,160
Nodesize: 40,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Windstate: 1,119,103
Valuestate: 1,41,56,571,353,1,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30394,31570,-1
Reformval: [Year,R_d]
Numberformat: 1,%,4,0,0,0
Chance Market_now
Title: Market~
size now
Units: /Year
Description: The current size of the market in units sold this year.
Definition: Project_data_input[Data='Market Size Now']
Nodelocation: 256,40
Nodesize: 40,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,124,86,343,285,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30394,31570,-1
Fontstyle: New York, 18
Chance Ramp_time
Title: Ramp time
Units: number
Description: This is the number of years before the market reaches its~~
peak from the introduction of the product in the market. The user en~~
ters this information (ex. 3 ) using the Project data input node.
Definition: Project_data_input[Data='Ramp Time']
Nodelocation: 96,40
Nodesize: 40,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 30394,31570,-1
Chance Max_share
Title: Max share
Description: This describes the maximum market share a product is expe~~
cted to reach in its life cycle. This is an uncertainty node. The d~~
istribution is shown by a custom made lognorm80 function (which can b~~
e found under Detail - Function library.) The user specifies lognorm~~
80 function with A and B as parameters using the Project data input n~~
ode. A is the value that there is a 10% probability that the max sh~~
are is less than or equal to A (Probability[Max share <= A) = 0.1). ~~
B specifies that there is 10% probability that the max share is great~~
er than B (Probability[Max share > B = 0.1)
Definition: Project_data_input[Data='Maximum Market Share']
Nodelocation: 96,200
Nodesize: 40,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,136,146,416,303,1,CDFP
Nodecolor: 30394,31570,-1
Chance Plateau_time
Title: Plateau time
Units: number
Description: This is the number of years that the market will stay at ~~
the plateau of the market. It is assumed that once the market reaches~~
its peak, it will stay at that level for the duration of plateau ti~~
me. This plateau time is entered by the user via the Project data i~~
nput node.
Definition: Project_data_input[Data='Plateau Time']
Nodelocation: 96,88
Nodesize: 40,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Chance Decline_time
Title: Decline time
Units: number
Description: This is the number of years the market will be declining ~~
from the end of the plateau year. The user enters this information by~~
using the Project data input node.
Definition: Project_data_input[Data='Decline Time']
Nodelocation: 96,144
Nodesize: 40,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Close Market_forecast
Module Financial_forecast
Title: Financial forecast
Description: This module calculates various financial data such as net~~
revenue, profit before and after tax using the result from Market fo~~
recast module. It further evaluates cash flow and net present value ~~
of net profit (profit after variable costs, fixed costs, and tax.)
Author: mike
Date: Wed, Aug 23, 1995 11:46 AM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 224,136
Nodesize: 44,20
Diagstate: 1,74,66,509,262,17
Fontstyle: Arial, 13
Chance Variable_cost
Title: Variable~
cost
Units: $/unit
Description: This is the variable cost per each unit. The user enters~~
this information using the Project data input node.
Definition: Project_data_input[Data='Variable Cost per unit']
Nodelocation: 72,40,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,103,153,473,322,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30394,31570,-1
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:10~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:5~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:1~
Grid:1~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:75~
Xmaximum:200~
Yminimum:0~
Ymaximum:2m~
Zminimum:0~
Zmaximum:1u~
Xintervals:0~
Yintervals:0~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[5m,2.5m,5m,7.5m,9.5m]~
Chance Net_revenue
Title: Net~
revenue
Units: $/year
Description: This describes the revenue subtracting the variable cost~~
s. It does not subtract fixed costs, R&D costs, or tax yet.
Definition: ((Price-Variable_cost)*Units_sold)
Nodelocation: 184,40,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Windstate: 1,56,66
Valuestate: 1,-15,51,537,352,1,PDFP
Nodecolor: 30394,31570,-1
Reformval: [R_d,Year]
Variable Profit1
Title: Profit after tax
Units: $/year
Description: This is the Profit after tax. This profit is the result o~~
f subtracting fixed costs, variable costs and tax from the revenue. ~~
R&D costs have not been subtracted yet.
Definition: Profit2*(1-Tax_rate)
Nodelocation: 184,176,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,49,56,528,352,1,PDFP
Nodecolor: 30394,31570,-1
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:10~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:5~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:1~
Grid:1~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:-2.6M~
Xmaximum:-1.8M~
Yminimum:-200M~
Ymaximum:200M~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:2~
Xintervals:6~
Yintervals:5~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[5m,2.5m,5m,7.5m,9.5m]~
Numberformat: 1,D,4,2,0,1
Chance Fixed_cost
Title: Fixed~
cost
Units: $/year
Description: This is the fixed cost per year. The user enters this inf~~
ormation by using the Project data input node.
Definition: Project_data_input[Data='Yearly Fixed Cost']
Nodelocation: 72,104,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30394,31570,-1
Objective Net_present_value
Title: Net present~
value
Units: $
Description: The net present value of the profit, revenue - (fixed cos~~
ts+ variable costs+ tax), discounted to the present using Discount ra~~
te. The user enters Discount rate by using the Project data input nod~~
e. (Note: R&D cost has not been subtracted yet.)
Definition: npv(Discount_rate,Profit1,Year)
Nodelocation: 328,216,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,106,90,488,346,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: -5300,22800,-32616
Reformval: [R_d, Probability1 ]
Numberformat: 1,D,4,2,0,1
Variable Profit2
Title: Profit before tax
Units: $/year
Description: This is profit after variable costs and fixed costs have ~~
been subtracted. This profit does not subtract tax or R&D costs yet.
Definition: (Net_revenue-Fixed_cost)
Nodelocation: 184,104,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Valuestate: 1,-7,67,572,358,1,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30394,31570,-1
Graphsetup: Graphtool:0~
Distresol:10~
Diststeps:1~
Cdfresol:5~
Cdfsteps:1~
Symbolsize:6~
Linestyle:1~
Frame:1~
Grid:1~
Ticks:1~
Mesh:1~
Scales:1~
Rotation:45~
Tilt:0~
Depth:70~
Frameauto:1~
Showkey:1~
Xminimum:1.994K~
Xmaximum:2.006K~
Yminimum:-50M~
Ymaximum:150M~
Zminimum:1~
Zmaximum:2~
Xintervals:6~
Yintervals:5~
Includexzero:0~
Includeyzero:0~
Includezzero:0~
Statsselect:[1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0]~
Probindex:[5m,2.5m,5m,7.5m,9.5m]~
Reformval: [Year,R_d]
Numberformat: 1,D,4,2,0,1
Chance Tax_rate
Title: Tax rate
Units: %
Description: This is the Corporate tax rate. The user enters this info~~
rmation by using the Project data input node.
Definition: 35%
Nodelocation: 72,176,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30394,31570,-1
Objective Npv_if_commercialize
Title: NPV if commercialized
Units: $
Description: If an R&D project was technically successful, it would h~~
ave been marketed. If the product was marketed then the net present ~~
value of the profit is as caculated in the Net present value node. Ot~~
herwise, if the product was not commercialized because it was not tec~~
hnically successful, then it is assigned 0.
Definition: If Commercialize then Net_present_value else 0
Nodelocation: 440,184
Nodesize: 56,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: -5300,22800,-32616
Objective Cash_flow
Title: Cash flow
Units: dollar
Description: This calculates cash flow from current year to horizon ye~~
ar. It takes the yearly profit resulting from subtracting variable c~~
osts, fixed costs, and tax from the revenue, then subtracts the yearl~~
y R&D cost.
Definition: Profit1 - R_d_cost_by_year_
Nodelocation: 328,144,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,88,98,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: -5302,22798,-32752
Reformval: [Year,R_d]
Close Financial_forecast
Close Market_suc
Module Indexes___functions
Title: Indexes & Functions
Description: This module holds the indexes, functions, and time data f~~
or the model.
Author: Max Henrion
Date: Mon, Apr 3, 1995 10:36 PM
Nodelocation: 88,296
Nodesize: 44,20
Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0
Diagstate: 1,174,49,320,266,1
Nodecolor: -13157,-25560,-86
Index R_d
Title: R&D
Description: R_d index lists all R&D projects that are available for a~~
nalysis
Definition: ['Tissue','Virus']
Indexvals: ['Tissue','Virus']
Nodelocation: 160,32
Nodesize: 44,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 14397,-26285,-1
{!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Tissue','Virus']}
Function Lognorm80(a,b)
Title: Lognorm80(a,b)
Description: Lognormal distribution with an 80% probability between a ~~
and b. ~
a is 10%ile and b is 90%ile~
NB 0=x+dx.
Definition: IF x<=x0 then 0 else if x>=x0+dx then 1 else USING x1=(x-x~~
0)/dx DO x1* x1* (3 - 2* x1)
Nodelocation: 72,208
Nodesize: 60,20
Windstate: 1,83,221
Nodecolor: 13107,-1,-13108
Paramnames: x0,dx,x
Variable Current_year
Title: Current year
Units: year
Description: Beginning year of the analysis
Definition: 1995
Nodelocation: 56,88
Nodesize: 44,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Variable Horizon_year
Title: Horizon~
year
Description: The analysis is carried out until the horizon year.
Definition: 2005
Nodelocation: 56,144
Nodesize: 44,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Index Year
Title: Year
Units: AD
Description: Array of year starting from current_year to horizon_year~~
Definition: Sequence(Current_year,Horizon_year)
Nodelocation: 160,88
Nodesize: 44,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 14397,-26285,-1
Alias Al10
Title: Project Data~
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 56,32
Nodesize: 48,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,0,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Original: Project_data_input
Index Data
Title: Data
Description: Data input required for analysis
Definition: ['Fund? (O or 1)','R&D Time','R&D Cost','Prob. Encode into~~
Tissue','Prob. Encode into Virus','Prob. Package into application','~~
Prob. Test on animals','Prob. Test on human','Prob. Obtain FDA approv~~
al','Price per unit of product','Ramp Time','Plateau Time','Decline T~~
ime','Maximum Market Share','Market Size Now','Annual Market Growth',~~
'Variable Cost per unit','Yearly Fixed Cost','Tax Rate','Discount Rat~~
e']
Nodelocation: 160,144
Nodesize: 44,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 14397,-26285,-1
{!40000|Att_previndexvalue: ['Fund? (O or 1)','R&D Time','R&D Cost','P~~
rob. Encode into Tissue','Prob. Encode into Virus','Prob. Package int~~
o application','Prob. Test on animals','Prob. Test on human','Prob. O~~
btain FDA approval','Price per unit of product','Ramp Time','Plateau ~~
Time','Decline Time','Maximum Market Share','Market Size Now','Annua~~
l Market Growth','Variable Cost per unit','Yearly Fixed Cost','Tax Ra~~
te','Discount Rate']}
Close Indexes___functions
Chance Project_data_input
Title: Project data input
Description: The user uses this node to enter all the data needed to r~~
un the model. The user clicks twice on EDIT TABLE to view the table~~
and to enter the data.
Definition: Table(R_d,Data)(~
1,5,5M,0.7,0,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.7,100,1,3,2,Lognorm80(0.4,0.5),1M,Lognorma~~
l(0.2,1.5),50,3M,0.3,0.12,~
1,10,10M,0,0.5,0.7,0.7,0.4,0.6,150,2,4,1,Lognorm80(0.6,0.8),2M,Lognor~~
mal(0.3,2),60,4M,0.3,0.12~
)
Nodelocation: 264,40
Nodesize: 60,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0
Windstate: 1,52,73
Defnstate: 2,554,88,496,419,0,MIDM
Valuestate: 1,296,306,416,303,0,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Al10, Alias Al9
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Reformdef: [R_d,Data]
Reformval: [R_d,Data]
Decision R_d_funding
Title: R&D~
funding
Description: 1 indicates a project is funded. 0 indicates that a proje~~
ct is not being funded. This decision is entered by clicking on the P~~
roject data input node and clicking twice on EDIT TABLE, then type i~~
n either 0 or 1.
Definition: Project_data_input[Data='Fund? (O or 1)']
Nodelocation: 96,128
Nodesize: 44,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Windstate: 1,114,244
Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 11,-1,-8739
Module R_d__results
Title: R&D ~
results
Description: This module includes submoduless which determine whether ~~
a R&D project will be technically successful or not. It also calculat~~
es the expected R&D cost by year, and net present value (NPV) of R&D ~~
cost.
Author: Henrion
Date: Tue, May 23, 1995 10:01 PM
Defaultsize: 48,20
Nodelocation: 264,128
Nodesize: 48,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Diagstate: 1,162,243,436,301,1
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Fontstyle: Arial, 13
Chance Discount_rate
Title: Discount~
rate
Units: /year
Description: This is the annual discount rate used in all net present ~~
value calculations in the model. The user enters an appropriate disc~~
ount rate to use for each R&D project in the Project data input node.~~
Definition: Project_data_input[data = 'Discount Rate']
Nodelocation: 360,152,1
Nodesize: 48,21
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 30393,31569,-1
Chance R_d_time
Title: R&D time
Units: number
Description: R&D time describes the number of years a R&D is planned (~~
i.e., 5 for 5 years.). This data is entered by user using the Projec~~
t data input node.
Definition: Project_data_input[Data='R&D Time']
Nodelocation: 72,184
Nodesize: 48,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Chance R_d_cost
Title: R&D cost
Units: dollar
Description: R&D cost is the total R&D budget for each project for the~~
life of the project. The user enters this information using the Pro~~
ject data input node.
Definition: Project_data_input[Data='R&D Cost']
Nodelocation: 72,248
Nodesize: 48,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Module Tissue_tec1
Title: Tissue Tech~
Success
Description: This submodule calculates the technical success of the T~~
issue gene therapy R&D project. It generates either 1 or 0 indicating~~
success or failure.
Author: Henrion
Date: Wed, May 10, 1995 4:03 PM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 72,48,1
Nodesize: 48,21
Diagstate: 1,98,65,407,289,1
Chance Produce_gene_cells
Title: Produce gene cells
Units: number between 0 and 1
Description: This describes the probability that genes can be successf~~
ully encoded into cells. The user enters this information using the ~~
Project data input node. It generates either 1 or 0 using the Bernoul~~
li process. For example, if the user types in 0.7, 70% of the time, ~~
it generates 1 and 30% of the time 0 (using some sample size.)
Definition: Bernoulli(Project_data_input[R_d='Tissue', Data='Prob. Enc~~
ode into Tissue'])
Nodelocation: 56,24
Nodesize: 52,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,132,61,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Chance Package_in
Title: Package into application
Units: number between 0 and 1
Description: This is the probability that the development can be packa~~
ged into application. The user enters this information using the Proj~~
ect data input node. It generates 1 or 0 using the Bernoulli process.~~
For example, if the user specifies 0.6, it generates 1 60% of the ti~~
me and 0 40% of the time (based on a sample size.)
Definition: Bernoulli(Project_data_input[R_d='Tissue', Data='Prob. Pac~~
kage into application'])
Nodelocation: 56,80
Nodesize: 52,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,143,77,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Chance Test_on_an
Title: Test on animals
Description: This is the probability that testing on animals is succes~~
sful. The user enters this information using the Project data input n~~
ode. It generates 1 or 0 using the Bernoulli process. For example, if~~
the user specifies 0.6 as the probability, then it generates 1 60% o~~
f the time and 0 40% of the time (based on a sample size.)
Definition: Bernoulli(Project_data_input[R_d='Tissue', Data='Prob. Tes~~
t on animals'])
Nodelocation: 56,136
Nodesize: 52,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Chance Test_on_hum
Title: Test on human
Units: number between 0 and 1
Description: This is the probability that testing on human is successf~~
ul. The user enters this information using the Project data input nod~~
e. It generates either 1 or 0 using the Bernoulli process. For exampl~~
e, if the user specifies 0.6, it generates 1 60% of the time and 0 40~~
% of the time (based on a sample size.)
Definition: Bernoulli(Project_data_input[R_d='Tissue', Data='Prob. Tes~~
t on human'])
Nodelocation: 56,192
Nodesize: 52,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Chance Gain_fda_approval
Title: Gain FDA approval
Units: number between 0 and 1
Description: This is the probability that the FDA Approval can be obta~~
ined. The user enters this probability using the Project data input ~~
node. It generates either 1 or 0 using the Bernoulli process. For ex~~
ample, if the user specifies 0.6 as the probability, then it generate~~
s 1 60% of the time and 0 40% of the time (based on a sample size.)
Definition: Bernoulli(Project_data_input[R_d='Tissue', Data='Prob. Obt~~
ain FDA approval'])
Nodelocation: 56,248
Nodesize: 52,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Chance Tissue_tech_suc
Title: Tissue Tech Reached Goal
Units: either 0 or 1
Description: This is the probability that the tissue technology R&D pr~~
oject is technially successful. It generates 1 indicating that the ti~~
ssue technology is technically successful if each of the processes in~~
volved is successful (also indicated by 1). Tissue Tech Reached Goal~~
if the R&D project was successful in producing genes encoded in tiss~~
ues, packaging into an application, testing on animals, testing on hu~~
man, and gaining the FDA approval.
Definition: Produce_gene_cells and Package_in and Test_on_hum and Test~~
_on_an and Gain_fda_approval
Nodelocation: 320,96
Nodesize: 52,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,40,50,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Alias Al1
Title: Technical~
Reached Goal
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 320,184
Nodesize: 48,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Original: Technical_success
Alias Al9
Title: Project Data~
Definition: 1
Nodelocation: 72,312
Nodesize: 48,20
Nodeinfo: 1,1,0,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Original: Project_data_input
Close Tissue_tec1
Module Virus_tech
Title: Virus Tech~
Success
Description: This submodule calculates the technical success of the Vi~~
rus gene therapy R&D project. It generates either 1 or 0 indicating ~~
success or failure.
Author: Henrion
Date: Wed, May 10, 1995 4:03 PM
Defaultsize: 48,24
Nodelocation: 72,112,1
Nodesize: 48,21
Diagstate: 1,90,59,462,339,1
Chance Produce_gene
Title: Produce genes with virus
Units: number between 0 and 1
Description: This is the probability of success in producing genes wit~~
h virus encoded. The user enters this information using the Project d~~
ata input node. It generates either 1 or 0 using Bernoulli process. ~~
For example, if the user inputs 0.6, it will generate 1 60% of the t~~
ime and 40% of time 0 (based on a sample size.)
Definition: Bernoulli(Project_data_input[R_d='Virus', Data='Prob. Enco~~
de into Virus'])
Nodelocation: 104,32
Nodesize: 52,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Chance Package_app
Title: Package into application
Units: number between 0 and 1
Description: This is the probability that the product can be packaged ~~
into an application. The user enters this information using the Proje~~
ct data input node. It generates either 1 or 0 using the Bernoulli pr~~
ocess. For example, if the user specifies 0.6, it generates 1 60% of ~~
the time based on a sampling process.
Definition: Bernoulli(Project_data_input[R_d='Virus', Data='Prob. Pack~~
age into application'])
Nodelocation: 104,88
Nodesize: 52,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,137,97,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Chance Test_on_animal
Title: Test on animals
Units: number between 0 and 1
Description: This is theprobability that test on animals is successful~~
. The user enters this information using the Project data input node.~~
It generates either 1 or 0 using the Bernoulli process. For example,~~
if the user enters 0.6, it generates 1 60% of the time and 0 40% of ~~
the time (based on a sample size.)
Definition: Bernoulli(Project_data_input[R_d='Virus', Data='Prob. Test~~
on animals'])
Nodelocation: 104,144
Nodesize: 52,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,134,102,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Chance Test_on_human
Title: Test on human
Description: This is the probability that test on human is sucessful. ~~
The user enters this information using the Project data input node. ~~
It generates either 1 or 0 using the Bernoulli process. For example, ~~
if the user specifies 0.6, then it generates 1 60% of the time and 0 ~~
40% of the time (based on a sample size.)
Definition: Bernoulli(Project_data_input[R_d='Virus', Data='Prob. Test~~
on human'])
Nodelocation: 104,200
Nodesize: 52,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,119,92,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Chance Gain_fda_appv
Title: Gain FDA approval
Units: number between 0 and 1
Description: This is the probability that the FDA approval can be obta~~
ined. The user enters this information using the Project data input n~~
ode. It generates either 1 or 0 using the Bernoulli process. For exa~~
mple, if the user inputs 0.6, then it genrates 1 60% of the time and ~~
0 40% of the time (based on a sample size.)
Definition: Bernoulli(Project_data_input[R_d='Virus', Data='Prob. Obta~~
in FDA approval'])
Nodelocation: 104,256
Nodesize: 52,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,124,97,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Chance Virus_tech_success
Title: Virus Tech~
Reached Goal
Units: number either 0 or 1
Description: This is the probability that the virus technology R&D pro~~
ject is technially successful. It generates 1 indicating that the vir~~
us technology is technically successful if each of the processes invo~~
lved is successful (also indicated by 1). Virus Tech Reached Goal if~~
the R&D project was successful in producing genes with virus encoded~~
, packaging into an application, testing on animals, testing on human~~
, and gaining the FDA approval.
Definition: ((((Produce_gene And Package_app) And Test_on_animal) And ~~
Test_on_human) And Gain_fda_appv)
Nodelocation: 344,88
Nodesize: 52,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,56,66,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Alias Al2
Title: Technical~
Reached Goal
Definition: 0
Nodelocation: 344,224
Nodesize: 52,24
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Original: Technical_success
Close Virus_tech
Chance Technical_success
Title: Technical~
success
Units: Either 0 or 1
Description: This describes whether a R&D project is technically succe~~
ssful. It obtains whether each R&D project is technically successful ~~
or not from the submodules that calculate the probability of technic~~
al success for each project. It also checks whether a R&D project w~~
as funded. Technical success generates either 1 or 0. It gives 1 onl~~
y when a R&D project is being funded and has been determined to be te~~
chnically successful by a submodule. In all other cases, it generate~~
s 0.
Definition: Table(R_d)(~
Tissue_tech_suc,Virus_tech_success) and R_d_funding
Nodelocation: 240,72,1
Nodesize: 48,21
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Valuestate: 1,113,94,416,303,0,MIDM
Aliases: Alias Al1, Alias Al2
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Chance R_d_cost_by_year_
Title: R&D Cost by Year~
Units: dollar
Description: This is the yearly R&D expense. It is calculated by div~~
iding R&D cost over R&D time. It assumes that a R&D project is alloca~~
ted an equal nominal amount each year calculated by (R&D cost/ R&D T~~
ime).
Definition: If Year<(Current_year+R_d_time)Then (R_d_cost/R_d_time) El~~
se 0
Nodelocation: 240,208,1
Nodesize: 48,21
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0
Valuestate: 1,72,82,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Reformval: [Year,R_d]
Chance Npv_r_d_cost
Title: NPV R&D cost
Description: This is the net present value of the total R&D cost disco~~
unted by Discount rate. It is used in the market success module to de~~
termine the net profit (Net present value of revenue - Net present va~~
lue of all costs.)
Definition: npv(Discount_rate,R_d_cost_by_year_,Year)
Nodelocation: 360,208,1
Nodesize: 48,21
Nodeinfo: 1,1,1,1,1,1,0,,0
Valuestate: 1,131,104,416,303,0,MIDM
Nodecolor: 30391,31519,-1
Close R_d__results
Constant Level
Title: Level
Definition: Table(Self)(~
0.5,1,2)
Indexvals: ['Low','Baseline','High']
Nodelocation: 88,376,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Variable Is_a_prob
Title: Is a prob
Definition: Table(Data)(~
0,0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0)
Nodelocation: 88,440,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Defnstate: 2,136,146,404,399,0,MIDM
Library Tornado_functions
Title: Tornado functions
Author: Lonnie
Date: Wed, Apr 16, 2008 3:56 PM
Saveauthor: Lonnie
Savedate: Mon, Apr 14, 2008 11:25 AM
Nodelocation: 200,296,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Function Tornado(result : Unevaluated ; inputs : index of handle ; ~
inputRanges : array ; Levels : index)
Title: Tornado
Description: Produces a sorted tornado, sorting by the average bar wid~~
th.
Definition: WidthSort( whatifall(result,inputs,inputRanges), Inputs,le~~
vels )~
Nodelocation: 96,48,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Windstate: 2,486,360,476,224
Paramnames: result,inputs,inputRanges,Levels
Function Average_all_except(x ; Except : Index)
Title: Average all except
Description: Averages over all elements in all dimensions of x except ~~
the one index indicated.
Definition: var n := 1;~
for J := indexesOf(x) do (~
if handle(J) <> Handle(Except) then (~
n := n * size(IndexValue(J));~
x := sum(x,J)~
) ~
);~
x/n
Nodelocation: 192,48,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Paramnames: x,Except
Function Widthsort( vals ; InputVars, Level : Index)
Title: WidthSort
Description: Sorts vals along the InputVars index according to average~~
bar width.
Definition: var width := Average_All_Except( Mean(Max(vals,Level) - Mi~~
n(Vals,Level)), InputVars );~
Index SortedVars / (identifier of InputVars) := SortIndex(-width);~
vals[InputVars=SortedVars]
Nodelocation: 176,104,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Paramnames: vals,InputVars,Level
Close Tornado_functions
Variable Input_ranges
Title: input ranges
Definition: if is_a_prob and level>1 then ~
(1 - ( 1-Project_data_input) / Level ) * (Project_data_input>0)~
else~
Level * Project_data_input
Nodelocation: 200,440,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Valuestate: 2,107,33,450,453,0,MIDM
Reformval: [Level,Data]
Variable R_d_value_range
Title: R&D Value range
Definition: WIdthSort(~
for d:=data do (~
WhatIf( R_d__value, Project_data_input, ~
if d=data then Input_ranges else Project_data_inpu~~
t)~
), data, level )
Nodelocation: 320,376,1
Nodesize: 48,24
Valuestate: 2,161,13,804,575,1,MEAN
Graphsetup: {!40000|Att_graphvaluerange R_d_value_range:1,,0,,,,,-20M,~~
150M}~
{!40000|Att_catlinestyle Graph_primary_valdim:9}~
Att__barorigin R_d_value_range:0~
{!40000|Flip:8}~
{!40000|Att_stackedbar Graph_primary_valdim:0}~
Baroverlap:100
Reformval: [Sys_localindex('DATA'),Level]
{!40000|Att_resultslicestate: [R_d,1,Level,1,Sys_localindex('DATA'),1]~~
}
{!40000|Att_originrole: Slice(Level,Level,2)}
Close R_d_portfolio_model